Christmas Bay tide station · Shallow seagrass back bay behind Follets Island, reached from West Bay. Two to three feet over most of it, so wind speed muddies it far faster than wind direction cleans it.
The bottom line
Friday, September 4 is the day. High at 6:56 AM with the major running 6:16 - 8:16 AM right through sunrise at 7:00, then a full-day fall to -0.02 ft at 7:21 PM - that is as good a setup as this bay gives you. Saturday is a near copy with the high pushed to 9:12 AM if you cannot get out Friday.
Hourly tide and fishing score for Friday, September 4
Hour
Tide (ft)
Score
Fishable
12 AM
0.22
42
No
1 AM
0.28
41
No
2 AM
0.33
40
No
3 AM
0.37
38
No
4 AM
0.4
37
No
5 AM
0.4
69
No
6 AM
0.7
100
Yes
7 AM
1.02
65
Yes
8 AM
1.02
66
Yes
9 AM
1.01
67
Yes
10 AM
0.96
71
Yes
11 AM
0.87
59
No
12 PM
0.76
61
No
1 PM
0.62
62
No
2 PM
0.47
62
No
3 PM
0.33
60
No
4 PM
0.2
60
No
5 PM
0.09
57
No
6 PM
0.02
68
Yes
7 PM
-0.02
64
Yes
8 PM
-0.01
67
Yes
9 PM
0.02
42
No
10 PM
0.08
44
No
11 PM
0.16
44
No
Clear Greenclear green front to back, trout-green over the shell
Lure or bait
Lure97
Bait93
Nothing separates them today (lure 97, bait 93) - fish whichever you enjoy more.
Cork or free-line, no problem
Clarity93
Tide100
Wind100
Solunar94
Tide
High 6:56 AM (1.02) -> Low 5:06 AM (0.4) -> High 8:15 AM (1.02) -> Low 7:21 PM (-0.02)
Range
1.04 ft · moderate · peak 0.2 ft/hr
Wind
S ~4 kt -> **SE 9 kt** late48-hr mean SSE 3.6 kt · veering to SE
Pressure
29.99 inHg, falling
Sky
Partly Cloudy · 88°F · 22% rain
Moon
Waning Crescent 46%
Sun
7:00 AM → 7:39 PM
Solunar & tide windows
6:16 AM - 8:16 AMMajor - moon overhead, on max tidal flow
L117 · B100
6:56 AM - 9:26 AMFirst of the outgoing off the 6:56 AM high
L100 · B92
8:15 AM - 10:45 AMFirst of the outgoing off the 8:15 AM high
L100 · B92
6:41 PM - 8:41 PMMajor - moon underfoot
L95 · B92
Why this rating
This is the best day of the stretch and it is not close - 93 clarity off two full days of S/SE rebuild, wind a flat 4-9 kt out of the S, tide a perfect 100, solunar 94. High at 6:56 AM and again 8:15 AM at 1.02 ft with the major running 6:16 - 8:16 AM through a 7:00 AM sunrise, then a long uninterrupted fall all day to -0.02 ft at 7:21 PM. Lure score of 97 says it plainly: this is a lure day, work it as one.
Speckled trout tactic
Topwater from before daylight - bone Super Spook Jr or a MirrOlure She Dog worked slow over shell in 2-4 ft, and do not rush the retrieve in clear water. Clean water means natural and translucent: Down South Super Model in Texas Roach or a Bass Assassin Sea Shad in a clear/glitter pattern on a 1/8 oz head. Fluorocarbon leader matters today - they will look at it.
Live bait tactic
Free-lined live shrimp on the shell during the 6:16 - 8:16 AM major, no weight, let the outgoing carry it. By mid-morning with water above 85F, live croaker on a light jighead worked on the deep side of the drop is what gets the heavy fish.
Water clarity read
Two straight days of S and SE at under 10 kt has pushed clean water through and let everything settle. Expect to see the bottom in 3 ft over sand and real trout-green color over the deeper shell.
Reds & flounder
Redfish will be sighted in the clear shallow grass early - throw a weedless gold spoon or a Down South rigged weightless. The all-day fall to -0.02 ft concentrates flounder tight in the drains through the afternoon.
Hourly tide and fishing score for Saturday, September 5
Hour
Tide (ft)
Score
Fishable
12 AM
0.26
62
No
1 AM
0.37
64
No
2 AM
0.49
64
No
3 AM
0.61
63
No
4 AM
0.73
61
No
5 AM
0.84
57
No
6 AM
0.93
68
No
7 AM
1
76
Yes
8 AM
1.04
69
Yes
9 AM
1.06
64
Yes
10 AM
1.05
70
Yes
11 AM
1
76
Yes
12 PM
0.9
74
No
1 PM
0.79
79
No
2 PM
0.65
81
No
3 PM
0.5
81
No
4 PM
0.35
80
No
5 PM
0.21
75
No
6 PM
0.1
70
No
7 PM
0.02
74
Yes
8 PM
-0.02
64
Yes
9 PM
-0.02
55
Yes
10 PM
0.01
44
Yes
11 PM
0.07
44
Yes
Clear Greenclear green everywhere, gin-clear on the sand
Lure or bait
Lure97
Bait91
Nothing separates them today (lure 97, bait 91) - fish whichever you enjoy more.
Cork or free-line, no problem
Clarity95
Tide97
Wind100
Solunar94
Tide
High 9:12 AM (1.06) -> Low 8:30 PM (-0.02)
Range
1.08 ft · strong · peak 0.1 ft/hr
Wind
SE 4-9 kt48-hr mean SSE 3.6 kt · veering to SE
Pressure
29.99 inHg, falling
Sky
Mostly Clear · 88°F · 29% rain
Moon
Waning Crescent 34%
Sun
7:01 AM → 7:38 PM
Solunar & tide windows
7:19 AM - 9:19 AMMajor - moon overhead, on max tidal flow
L117 · B100
9:12 AM - 11:42 AMFirst of the outgoing off the 9:12 AM high
L82 · B82
7:44 PM - 9:44 PMMajor - moon underfoot
L95 · B92
8:30 PM - 11:00 PMFirst of the incoming off the 8:30 PM low
L8 · B63
Why this rating
Clarity peaks at 95 after three days of S and SE rebuild, and wind is a dead-flat 4 kt out of the SE through the whole morning - the cleanest, calmest conditions of the week. The tide is a single strong swing, high 9:12 AM at 1.06 ft into a long uninterrupted fall to -0.02 ft at 8:30 PM, with the major running 7:19 - 9:19 AM right on top of it. Lures rule the day at a 97; the only knock is that the high sits later so first light is slower water.
Speckled trout tactic
Slick calm and clear means a long cast and a quiet approach. Bone Super Spook Jr walked slow at first light, then a Down South Super Model in Texas Roach or morning glory on a 1/8 oz head as the tide starts to pull after the 9:12 AM high. Keep colors natural and translucent, and go to a 1/16 oz head over shallow grass so you are not spooking them with the splash.
Live bait tactic
Free-lined live shrimp through the 7:19 - 9:19 AM major over the shell, then move to live croaker on a light jighead worked deep once the water gets past 85F and the sun is up. Croaker over the drop-offs is the big-trout play on a hot clear day.
Water clarity read
Three days of SE at 4-9 kt has settled everything out. This is the cleanest water of the forecast - sand flats will be near gin-clear and even the back reaches carry good color.
Reds & flounder
Sight-casting weather for redfish - clear water and no wind means you will see them before they see you. Flounder pile into the drains on the long afternoon fall toward 8:30 PM.
Wind is nothing - 4 kt swinging W to N to E through the morning, not enough to move water in any direction, so Saturday's clarity carries straight through. Tide is a strong single swing, high 9:50 AM at 1.06 ft then a long fall to -0.02 ft at 9:41 PM, and the major runs 8:21 - 10:21 AM right over the top of it. Solunar is the weakest piece at 73 because nothing lines up with first light. Lures at 90 to bait's 85 - work it as a lure day and be patient.
Speckled trout tactic
Slow start with the tide not moving hard until after 9 AM. Throw a bone Super Spook Jr at daylight anyway, then work a Lil John in morning glory or a Down South Super Model in Texas Roach on a 1/8 oz head over the shell as the water begins to pull. Once the sun is high and the water is over 87F, drop to a 3/8 oz head and fish the deeper drops slow.
Live bait tactic
Live shrimp under a cork over the shell while the tide is building to the 9:50 AM high. Switch to live croaker on a 1/4 oz jighead on the deeper drop-offs from mid-morning on - the water is going to hit 88F and the good trout will be down and sulky.
Water clarity read
The brief N and NE swing is too light at 4 kt to hurt anything - the water Saturday built stays put. Only the far back reaches show any stain and even that is minor.
Reds & flounder
Redfish will be up on the flooding shallows before 10 AM - a weedless gold spoon on the grass edges. The long evening fall past 6 PM is the flounder window at the drains.
Light W and WNW at 3-5 kt in the morning is technically the wrong direction, but at that speed it does nothing to this system - clarity holds at 84. The high at 9:15 AM at 1.03 ft rolls into a long all-day fall to -0.01 ft at 10:45 PM, which is a tide score of 93. Solunar is the weak link at 63 with the major sitting 9:21 - 11:21 AM well after sunrise. Lures at 88 over bait at 82, but note the afternoon forecast hits 95F air - get it done in the morning.
Speckled trout tactic
Topwater at first light before the heat builds - bone Super Spook Jr over shell in 2-4 ft. Then work the major with a Down South Super Model in Chicken on a Chain or a Bass Assassin Sea Shad on a 1/8 oz head along the deeper edges as the tide starts its long fall. By noon with air at 94F, go to a 3/8 oz head and fish the deepest shell you can find.
Live bait tactic
Live shrimp under a cork on the shell early while the tide is still building. Once the sun and heat set in, live croaker fished deep on a 1/4 oz jighead along the drop-offs is the only thing that will pull a good trout - water this hot pushes them down hard by mid-morning.
Water clarity read
The light W and WNW is only 3-5 kt so it barely registers, but it does put a slight edge off the back reaches. The main body and deeper shell hold sandy green color from the weekend.
Reds & flounder
Redfish on the flood before 9:15 AM in the shallow grass, then follow them out as the water drops all afternoon. Flounder set up in the drains through the long evening fall.
The 48-hour setup
Last 48 hours have been light and southerly - buoy 42035 is averaging SSE at 155 degrees, 6.8 kt scalar, with the last 24 tightening to SE at 134 degrees and gusts topping out at 23.3 kt. That is the direction that builds green water, and the light speed means it stacked clean Gulf water in without stirring the bottom. Pressure is sitting flat at 1015.6 hPa and the coastal station at Luce Bayou reads 89.6F surface water - hot, salty, and clear. Right now the boat cuts and the deeper shell in Christmas Bay have the best color of the summer.
The one wrinkle is Tuesday - NW around 20 kt behind the front line, which will scuff the west shoreline and drop clarity for a day. It rebounds fast because Tuesday night swings back S and stays S/SE the rest of the week, and the tides build to a strong single-swing pattern with a long uninterrupted fall Thursday through Sunday. Friday and Saturday are the standouts - clear the mornings, be on the water before 7 AM.
Buoy 42035: 48-hour vector-mean wind SSE (155 deg) at 3.6 kt; 24-hour mean SE at 3 kt. Peak gust in the last 48 hours: 23.3 kt.
LUIT2 latest: E at 8 kt, gusting 11.1 kt. Pressure 1015.1 hPa. Water temp 89.6 F.
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The NWS hourly forecast reaches about 6.5 days, which stops short of the end of this window. Wind, temperature and sky for Monday come from Open-Meteo alone, with no second model to check them against. Treat the last of the week as a trend, not a plan.
Wind is cross-checked against two independent models: the NWS gridpoint forecast for this spot, and Open-Meteo running gfs_seamless at 29.069916, -95.15971. Across the overlapping mornings the two agree to within 1.8 kt on average (worst 3.6 kt). Where they diverge, treat that day's wind as less certain.
Water clarity is inferred from measured 48-hour buoy wind history and forecast wind vectors. It is not visually confirmed - local webcams are video streams and cannot be read automatically. Check a cam before you load the truck.